It is probably not directly Paula Vennells, Ed Davey or anyone yet “in the sights” responsible for the Post Office scandal. There may well be one or more others who bear direct responsibility. And there are implications for employers!
There is a little-known phenomenon called the Dunning-Kruger effect, named after two researchers in social psychology . It is a mentality in a person that believes, despite all the odds and their own limited knowledge, that they are “right”. It is the mentality that in 2023, fatally took a submarine crew to view the Titanic or in 1912 caused an early parachute inventor to jump off the Eiffel tower (to his immediate death).
Many of us will have come across such mentalities in organisations or in life.
It would matter relatively little if the phenomenon were confined to eccentrics such as those mentioned or confined to “little people”. But some believe it is the same mentality that also drove the likes of Elizabeth Holmes to fraudulently develop a multi-million blood testing business. Such people convince not only themselves, but by force of personality, all those immediately around them that theirs is the truth. The willingness of others to buy into their narrative, in the case of Elizabeth Holmes that included Henry Kissinger, is where the danger lies.
Employers need to be aware/be wary of such personalities – or even a tendency within themselves. It can be prevalent at the job interview. An initial rapport can lead to us ignoring contrary evidence of suitability. We believe we are right in our initial judgement and spend the rest of the interview looking for confirmatory evidence. It is not only the job interview; it can occur in other decision-making situations too.
It is quite possible that within the Post-Office decision-making structure there is, or was, an extreme such mind in the form of one person. Despite the odds against hundreds of Postmasters suddenly turning criminal, despite common knowledge that computers can produce glitches, it may well be that one person convinced their immediate entourage that they, “the Post Office”, was “right” to proceed with prosecutions. That entourage must have included the CEO and Government Ministers too.
However, like the “controlling mind” in corporate manslaughter cases, any such person might well disappear within corporate self-protection. We shall have to see.
As employers, we need to be wary of those who demonstrate conviction despite evidence to a contrary view. Indeed, we ourselves need to be wary of having convictions that, when challenged, defy the odds.
And, within that corporate enclave at the Post Office there may well be some people who will know that there is a forceful person who is responsible for the Post Office debacle.
Malcolm Martin FCIPD
Author Human Resource Practice
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